How we make our predictions

Our previews are produced by a consistent, partly automated process: match data from our feed, recent published sources found by web search, and AI-assisted analysis that follows fixed rules. This page explains the process so you can decide how much weight to give our picks.

1. Choosing the matches

We do not cover everything. Each day our system ranks upcoming fixtures by popularity and importance: top leagues and tournaments, big clubs, derbies and title deciders come first. Youth, reserve and lower-tier matches are ranked down. This keeps our coverage focused on games where there is enough reliable information to say something useful.

2. Gathering the facts

Close to kick-off we collect recent results, head-to-head records and fresh reporting on team news, injuries, suspensions, expected line-ups and market prices. Each preview lists the sources it relied on at the bottom of the page.

3. Writing the analysis

Every preview covers form, team news, head-to-head history, the tactical or stylistic matchup and the key numbers, then ends with a verdict. Our writing is assisted by AI tools working only from the data and sources gathered for that match, and every preview follows strict rules: no invented statistics, injuries or quotes, and uncertainty is stated rather than hidden.

4. Probabilities and confidence

For each match we estimate the probability of a home win, a draw (where possible) and an away win. These always add up to 100%. The main pick comes with a confidence rating from 1 to 5: a 5 is rare and means several independent factors point the same way. Most picks are a 3.

5. Settling and reporting

Picks are only written before kick-off, and each preview shows the time its pick was fixed. Anything published after a match has started is labelled a match review and is left out of our record.

When the match ends, the pick is settled automatically from the official score: Won, Lost or Void. ROI assumes a one-unit stake at the odds shown when the preview was published. The full record, broken down by sport and by month, is on our track record page.

Corrections

If a preview contains a factual error, we correct it and the page shows when it was last updated. The pick itself is never changed after kick-off.